Before I start this article, I want to talk about my style about my blog. When I write something about my view on the companies in Turkey, I’m thinking, I create a folder about companies which I value. Instead of writing all things about companies which I value, I’m going to prefer write things in different directions in different articles.
Correspondingly my
style, I create a folder for all companies which were value from me. After I
will write all things about the companies, finally I'm going to create my
valuating model… So, let’s start Episode 1.
Dogus Automotive’s Market Share
Initially, for talking about Dogus Automotive’s market share, we must know the market which operates from Dogus Automotive. Dogus Automotive is one of the biggest players in the Turkish Automotive Retail Sector. This sector includes passenger car and other automotive types. In late last year, this sector has been sale more than 1 million automotive. Actually, its sales figure was not normal because when we look sales figures of the other previous years, we see more less sales figures. We can create a table for understanding this notion.
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| Figure 1: These data were provided by ODMD |
As we can, Automotive Sales figures are so volatile.
In 2015, 968.017 cars had sold in Turkey by Turkish Automotive retailers. In
2016, that previous year figure increased to 983.720 and when date was 2019,
these sales figure had decreased to 479.060. This figure had referred about %50
decrease in Automotive sales. With the COVID-19 effects, Turkish Automotive
Market was slow. After the 2019, Automotive sales in Turkey were about
700.000-790.000.
So now, we must ask that question, why Automotive
Sales in Turkey outstandingly increase in 2023 beside of 2022, 2021,2020 and
2019?
Turkey
Economic Outlook since 2018
In 2018, Turkey was fork in a road. Accordingly to me,
the government of AKP was trying to do new things in Turkey economy. They had
ruled power in 2002 with using tradesman power. Until the 2002, tradesman power
and close the Islamic perspectives were excluded by Turkish secular fractions.
In 2002’s elections, AKP used this notion with own advantage. They joined the
election and won… Year to year, fallowing to AKP’s won, these tradesmen were
getting power. They were rich year to year, and they were creating some
production or servicing jobs. In 2018, these Islamic tradesman fractions which
were helping to AKP in elections at previous years, were starting to want to
new benefits from AKP government…
I'm not sure if they wanted to devalue the Turkish lira at the time, but the AKP government must have been trying to think about the economy in a new way at the time, and to make sure that this new way of thinking was radical in a way that reflected their power in Turkey. Consequently, TL was devaluated by Turkish government and inflation increased extraordinary. The prices of good and services were exorbitant and interest rates increased despite of the TCMB decisions about formal interest rates.
Like all improper decisions, Turkish government’s
economic decisions had been caused to some economic problems. Because of these
decisions, interest rates (like car credits or mortgage) increased despite
fraction TCMB’s interest rate decisions. Thereby, Turkish people had tried to
find new investing areas. Consequently, these people decided to invest their
own money to car. Actually, car is not a investment instrument. But in that
extraordinary inflation rate period in Turkey, Turkish people had to buy anything
because of inflation because their own money was lost own value day by day.
Eventually, they did not have chance except to buy anything. At this period,
car prices had increased like whole other goods.
In the next episode we will look at the implications for DOAS.
